Are AI patents like other patents?
Patents appear on 377 recent papers, and patent quality on 24, but only 32 of the patent papers carry an AI or software keyword, and "AI patents" on 14. AI patent filings have exploded, especially in China, while much AI progress is published as open code. What do AI patents protect, and do they predict anything?
What prompted this
Since October 2025, 377 papers carry a patent keyword (148 in economics journals, 101 in management, 98 in finance): "patent citations" on 33, "patents" on 31, "patent applications" on 29, "patent quality" on 24. Only 32 of the 377 also carry an AI, machine-learning, generative or software keyword, and "AI patents" appears on 14 papers.
Questions
- Do AI patents get cited, licensed and litigated like other patents, or are they filed for signalling and subsidies?
- Do firms that patent AI release more or fewer open models and papers, and do the two forms of disclosure substitute for each other?
- Do AI patent counts predict firms' AI revenue or productivity any better than AI job postings do?
Data that could help
Patent records classified by technology (PATSTAT, PatentsView, CNIPA), citations and litigation, open-source releases and job postings.
Next step
Compare forward citations, renewals and litigation rates of AI patents with those of other software patents from the same firms and years.