Would a digital currency drain bank deposits?
Central bank digital currencies appear on 56 recent papers in the finance and economics journals, but only 14 of them carry a deposit, bank-lending, bank-run or financial-stability keyword. Pilots now run in China, Europe and elsewhere. If people can hold central bank money directly, how much would leave banks, and when?
What prompted this#
Since October 2025, 56 papers carry a central-bank-digital-currency keyword (46 in finance journals); "CBDC adoption" appears on 11. Only 14 of the 56 also carry a deposit, disintermediation, bank-lending, bank-run or financial-stability keyword. "Bank deposits" appears on 8 papers.
Questions#
- In the pilots in China, Nigeria and the Bahamas, did adopters move balances out of bank deposits, and did banks respond with higher deposit rates?
- Would holding limits and no interest, as the digital euro design proposes, keep deposits in place during a bank stress?
- How does a digital currency compare with stablecoins and money market funds as a drain on deposits?
Data that could help#
Pilot usage statistics published by central banks, bank-level deposit data, and survey evidence on who adopted the digital currency and why.
Next step#
Compare deposit growth at banks in pilot cities with banks elsewhere during China's e-CNY roll-out.