China raises its retirement age
Retirement, retirement age and delayed retirement appear on 94 recent papers in the economics and finance journals, and 38 of them touch China, pension reform or labour supply. China's statutory retirement age began rising in 2025, from some of the lowest ages in the world. Who works longer, who cares for grandchildren less, and what happens to youth hiring?
What prompted this#
Since October 2025, 94 papers carry a retirement keyword (54 in economics journals, 29 in finance): "retirement" on 19, "retirement age" on 12, "retirement planning" on 12, "delayed retirement" on 4. Thirty-eight of them also carry a China, labour-supply, employment, health or reform keyword, and "pension reform" appears on 10 of those. The 2025 reform raises the retirement age gradually over fifteen years, which makes it a long natural experiment.
Questions#
- Do workers affected by the first steps of the increase keep working, or leave the labour force without a pension?
- Does later retirement reduce grandparents' childcare and thereby lower their children's labour supply and fertility?
- Do firms hire fewer young workers when older workers stay, as the "lump of labour" argument claims, or not?
Data that could help#
Household panels with retirement and childcare data (China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, China Family Panel Studies), firm employment records and the reform's cohort schedule.
Next step#
Compare labour force participation and childcare hours of cohorts just above and just below the first retirement age steps in the 2025–2026 survey waves.