Climate migration, measured
Migration keywords appear on 283 recent papers, with 85 in the last quarter against about 61 per quarter before, but only 20 of them carry a climate, weather, drought, flood or disaster keyword, and "climate-induced migration" on 3. Do people move because of climate shocks, how far, and does the move help?
What prompted this
Since October 2025, 283 papers carry a migration, emigration, migrant, refugee or displaced keyword (235 in economics journals): "internal migration" on 27, "immigration" on 19, "migration" on 17, "rural-urban migration" on 15. The quarter to September 2026 had 85 such papers against about 61 per quarter earlier. Only 20 of the 283 also carry a climate, weather, drought, flood, temperature, sea-level, disaster or environmental keyword.
Questions
- After droughts and floods, do people move within their country, mostly to nearby cities, rather than across borders, as earlier evidence suggests, and does that still hold for the largest recent shocks?
- Do the poorest households, who are most exposed, lack the means to move, so that shocks trap them instead?
- Do migrants who left after a shock earn more than those who stayed, and do they send money back that helps those who stayed adapt?
Data that could help
Census and survey data on migration, gridded weather and flood data, mobile phone mobility data, and remittance flows.
Next step
Match district-level migration flows from censuses to drought and flood exposure for several countries and compare the response of poor and non-poor households.