Coal phase-out and local labour markets
A "just transition" is now a common theme in the economics journals, and many coal plants and mines have announced closure dates. Closures known years in advance are a rare chance to see whether workers and towns can prepare. What happens to coal workers' earnings, and to the towns around them?
What prompted this#
Since October 2025, "just transition" appears on 38 papers, 36 of them in economics journals, and "coal-fired power plants" on 12. Energy topics are rising on the trends page, from energy markets to critical minerals.
Questions#
- When a coal plant or mine closes, how much do its workers' earnings fall, and for how long, compared with workers at plants that stay open?
- Do announced closure dates let workers and towns adjust earlier, softening the blow?
- Do transition funds, such as the EU's Just Transition Fund, reach the affected workers and towns, and do they help?
Data that could help#
Plant closure dates (Global Coal Plant Tracker, national registers), linked employer-employee data or local labour statistics, and transition fund allocations.
Next step#
Compile the announced and actual closure dates of coal plants in one country and compare employment in their counties with similar counties without closures.