Office loans after remote work
Only 5 recent papers in the tracked journals carry a commercial real estate keyword, although office vacancies rose with remote work and office loans sit on many smaller banks' books. Are maturing office loans being extended rather than written down, and which banks carry them?
What prompted this#
Since October 2025, only 5 papers carry a commercial-real-estate keyword, after 6 in each of the two years before and 42 in the seven years before that. Over three years they appear in finance (9) and economics (6) journals, among them the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, and sit next to office buildings (3), real estate investment trusts (3), loan-to-value ratio (2) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (2). Office demand fell with remote work, and commercial real estate loans make up a large share of lending at many smaller banks. A related note looks at the interest-rate risk on bank balance sheets; this one looks at the credit risk next to it.
Questions#
- When office loans mature, are they extended and modified rather than written down, and does that delay losses?
- Which banks, by size and region, hold the most office exposure, and did their funding costs or share prices reflect it?
- Do prices of commercial mortgage-backed securities move before banks mark their office loans?
- What do lower office values do to the property-tax base of downtown districts?
Data that could help#
Loan-level filings for commercial mortgage-backed securities on SEC EDGAR (Form ABS-EE), US bank call reports with commercial real estate loans by type, and office occupancy indices.
Next step#
From the ABS-EE filings, track extensions and modifications of office loans maturing from 2023 to 2026 and compare them with retail, industrial and multifamily loans.