Managing decline in Japan's shrinking regions
Population decline, shrinking cities and the aging society appear on 26 recent papers, but only 4 of them also concern Japan, the country furthest into the decline. Which local policies (consolidation of services, migration incentives, remote work) keep regions viable, and what does orderly decline cost compared with resisting it?
What prompted this#
Since October 2025, 26 papers carry a depopulation, shrinking-city, population-decline, rural-decline or aging-society keyword (21 in economics journals): "population decline" on 10, "aging society" on 9, "shrinking cities" on 2. Only 4 of them also carry a Japan keyword, although "Japan" appears on 81 papers in the archive.
Questions#
- Do municipal mergers and the concentration of services in "compact city" cores lower costs per resident without accelerating out-migration?
- Did the hometown tax donation scheme and relocation subsidies bring people and money to shrinking towns, or shift them between towns?
- Which towns stabilized after remote work spread, and what did they have in common?
Data that could help#
Municipal population, finance and service data (Japan's census and municipal finance statistics), the dates of mergers and compact city plans, and relocation subsidy records.
Next step#
Compare per-resident public spending and net migration in Japanese municipalities that adopted compact city plans with similar municipalities that did not.