The EU deforestation rule and the farms it reaches
Deforestation appears on 28 recent papers and the EU Deforestation Regulation on 4, with 10 deforestation papers in the last quarter against about 8 per quarter before. The rule requires proof that coffee, cocoa, soy, palm oil and other goods were not grown on deforested land. Will it change where forests fall, or only where goods are sold?
What prompted this
Since October 2025, 36 papers carry a deforestation keyword (34 in economics journals): "deforestation" on 28, "EU Deforestation Regulation" on 4, "zero deforestation" on 2. Twelve of the 36 also carry a supply-chain, trade, regulation, commodity or due-diligence keyword. The rule's start was delayed to the end of 2025 and its scope narrowed, which makes its first years a moving target.
Questions
- Do exporters divert goods from recently deforested land to markets without such rules, so that EU imports become clean while deforestation continues?
- Can smallholders provide the geolocation proof the rule requires, or are they dropped from supply chains?
- Does the rule's traceability requirement change the price premium for certified products?
Data that could help
Trade data by product and origin, satellite forest loss (Global Forest Watch), supply chain traceability data (for example Trase), and farm surveys in producing countries.
Next step
Compare forest loss near farms that supply the EU with loss near farms that supply other markets, using traceability data for cocoa or palm oil.