Food prices and unrest
Food security, food prices and food inflation appear on 105 recent papers, mostly in economics, but only 6 of them carry a conflict, unrest, protest or violence keyword. Food price spikes preceded unrest in 2008 and 2011. With prices high again and aid budgets cut, where is the risk greatest, and does early warning work?
What prompted this
Since October 2025, 105 papers carry a food-price, food-inflation or food-security keyword (83 in economics journals): "food security" on 64, "food prices" on 19, "food inflation" on 14. Only 6 of them also carry a conflict, unrest, protest, riot, violence, instability or war keyword.
Questions
- Do local food price spikes predict protests and violence at the district level, and is the link stronger where governments subsidize bread and fuel?
- Do food aid cuts, such as those of 2025, raise the risk in the places that lost the most aid?
- Can commodity futures and weather forecasts give months of warning, and do governments act on it?
Data that could help
Local food prices (the World Food Programme's price database), conflict events (ACLED), aid flows and weather data.
Next step
Estimate the relationship between district-level food price changes and protest events in Africa and the Middle East for 2015–2025, with aid cuts as an added shock.