Green hydrogen between targets and costs
Green hydrogen appears on 32 recent papers and hydrogen policy on 11, mostly in the economics journals, while projects are being cancelled as costs stay high. Which uses of hydrogen survive at realistic prices, and what do the subsidies buy?
What prompted this
Since October 2025, 100 papers carry a hydrogen keyword (60 in economics journals, 12 in AI, 12 in operations research, 11 in management): "green hydrogen" on 32, "hydrogen policy" on 11, "hydrogen storage" on 10. The count fell to 21 in July–September 2026 against about 25 per quarter earlier, as several flagship projects were shelved.
Questions
- At electrolyser and electricity costs observed in 2025, which uses (fertilizer, steel, refining, shipping fuel, heating) break even, and which never will?
- How many announced projects reached final investment decision, and what distinguishes those that did?
- Do production subsidies such as the US hydrogen tax credit and the EU hydrogen bank lower costs over time, or mainly pay for projects that would exist anyway?
Data that could help
Project databases (the IEA hydrogen project tracker), electrolyser price surveys, subsidy awards, and firm announcements.
Next step
Compile the fate of every green hydrogen project announced in 2021–2023 and model the break-even hydrogen price for each end use at 2025 costs.