When insurers leave
Insurance appears on more than 400 recent papers in the finance and economics journals, but only 52 of them carry a climate or disaster keyword, and property insurance barely appears. As insurers withdraw from wildfire- and hurricane-prone regions, who holds the risk, and what happens to house prices and mortgages?
What prompted this#
Since October 2025, 408 papers carry an insurance keyword (196 in finance journals, 174 in economics), the most frequent being health, life, unemployment and deposit insurance. Only 52 of them also carry a wildfire, flood, climate, disaster, hurricane or catastrophe keyword, and "property insurance" appears on a single paper. "Natural disasters" appears on 82 papers.
Questions#
- When private insurers stop writing policies in a region, how much do house prices and mortgage lending fall, and who buys the homes?
- Do state-backed insurers of last resort, which are growing fast, price risk, or hide it?
- Does the retreat change where people and businesses move, and how quickly?
Data that could help#
Insurer market-exit filings and non-renewal rates by county, state insurer-of-last-resort enrolment, house transactions and mortgage originations (HMDA).
Next step#
Build a county panel of insurer exits and non-renewals for California and Florida since 2018, and relate it to house price growth and mortgage volumes.