Management guidance in uncertain times
Management earnings forecasts appear on 11 recent papers in the accounting and finance journals. Firms withdrew guidance in the pandemic and again around the 2025 tariff shocks. What do investors and analysts do when guidance disappears, and does the practice recover?
What prompted this
Since October 2025, 12 papers carry a management-forecast or management-guidance keyword (6 in accounting journals, 6 in finance), with "management earnings forecasts" on 11. Four of them were published in July–September 2026, against about 2 per quarter earlier. Economic policy uncertainty and trade policy uncertainty are among the most frequent keywords in the finance journals.
Questions
- When firms withdraw guidance in a shock, does analyst forecast dispersion and stock volatility rise more for those firms than for similar firms that keep guiding?
- Do firms that stopped guiding during the pandemic ever restart, and are those that restarted different?
- Did the 2025 tariff shocks lead firms to switch from point forecasts to ranges or scenarios?
Data that could help
Guidance records (I/B/E/S Guidance), analyst forecasts, stock volatility and the dates of shocks.
Next step
Count guidance withdrawals by quarter for 2019–2026 and compare the analyst dispersion of withdrawing firms with matched firms.