Mini-grids and the last 600 million without power
Electricity access, energy access and rural electrification appear on 106 recent papers, mostly in economics, and the topic is fading (21 papers in the last quarter against about 28 expected). Yet the push to connect Africa's unconnected relies on mini-grids and solar home systems. Which works better, for whom, and at what cost per household?
What prompted this
Since October 2025, 106 papers carry an electricity-access, energy-access, rural-electrification, mini-grid or off-grid keyword (94 in economics journals): "energy access" on 39, "electricity access" on 34, "rural electrification" on 27, "mini-grids" on 5. The quarter to September 2026 had 21 such papers against about 28 expected, just as large programmes to connect hundreds of millions of people in Africa get under way.
Questions
- Per household, what do grid extension, mini-grids and solar home systems cost, and how much electricity do households actually use from each after five years?
- Do mini-grids raise firm activity and incomes in villages more than solar home systems, which mostly power lights and phones?
- What happens to mini-grids when the national grid arrives: are they absorbed, stranded or kept as backup?
Data that could help
Programme data on connections and costs, utility billing or smart meter data from mini-grid operators, household surveys and night-time lights.
Next step
Use the staggered roll-out of a national electrification programme to compare village incomes and enterprise counts by connection type.