Public procurement, read by machine
Public procurement appears on 53 recent papers, with 40 procurement papers in the last quarter against about 26 per quarter before, and 33 of 123 carry a corruption, digital, e-procurement or bidding keyword. Open contracting data now cover millions of tenders. Can red flags in the data predict corruption, and do governments act on them?
What prompted this
Since October 2025, 123 papers carry a procurement keyword (52 in economics journals, 20 in finance, 20 in management, 20 in operations research): "public procurement" on 53, "procurement strategy" on 11, "green public procurement" on 4, "e-procurement" on 3. The quarter to September 2026 had 40 such papers against about 26 per quarter earlier. Thirty-three of the 123 also carry a corruption, e-procurement, digital, transparency, competition or bidding keyword; "corruption" alone appears on 87 papers.
Questions
- Do red flags computed from open contracting data (single bidders, short deadlines, repeated winners) predict later audit findings and prosecutions?
- When tenders move to electronic platforms, do single-bid rates and prices fall, and do the effects fade as bidders learn the system?
- Do firms that win contracts with red flags perform worse on the contracts?
Data that could help
Open contracting data (national procurement portals, the Open Contracting Partnership), audit and court records, and contract performance data.
Next step
Compute standard red-flag indicators for one country's procurement portal and test whether they predict audit findings in the following years.