R&D tax incentives and the relabeling problem
Tax incentives appear on 47 recent papers and R&D investment on 267, but R&D tax incentives on only 5, and 26 of 75 incentive papers touch innovation. Governments spend heavily on R&D tax relief. How much of the reported increase in R&D is real research, and how much is ordinary spending relabeled?
What prompted this#
Since October 2025, 75 papers carry a tax-incentive, tax-credit, R&D-tax or super-deduction keyword (47 in economics journals, 16 in finance); "tax incentives" appears on 47 and "R&D tax incentives" on 5. Twenty-six of the 75 also carry an R&D, innovation or patent keyword. "R&D investment" itself appears on 267 papers, one of the most frequent topics in the archive.
Questions#
- When R&D tax relief becomes more generous, do patents, new products and researcher hiring rise in proportion to reported R&D, or does reported R&D rise alone?
- Which firms relabel: those near the eligibility threshold, those with weak auditors, those in sectors where the line between R&D and engineering is blurry?
- Did the US requirement to amortize R&D from 2022 change reported R&D the other way?
Data that could help#
Firm R&D spending and tax relief claims, patents and product launches, researcher employment from job postings, and the dates of policy changes.
Next step#
Compare the growth of reported R&D with the growth of R&D job postings for firms around a change in the generosity of relief.