Robotaxis and the ride-hailing market
Ride-hailing and ride-sharing appear on 62 recent papers, mostly in operations research, and 11 of them carry an autonomous-vehicle keyword, with robotaxis on 3. Driverless taxis now operate commercially in several cities. What happens to prices, waiting times and drivers' earnings where they compete with human-driven rides?
What prompted this
Since October 2025, 62 papers carry a ride-hailing, ride-sharing, mobility-on-demand or taxi keyword (37 in operations research journals, 13 in economics): "ride-hailing" on 24, "ride-hailing platforms" on 14, "ride-sharing" on 13, "taxi drivers" on 3, "robotaxis" on 3. Eleven of the 62 also carry an autonomous, driverless, self-driving or robotaxi keyword; "autonomous vehicles" appears on 64 papers in the archive, mostly in AI journals.
Questions
- In cities where robotaxis operate at scale, did ride prices and waiting times fall, and did human drivers' hours and earnings decline?
- Do robotaxis take the dense, profitable trips and leave the rest to drivers, and does that change the economics of the platforms?
- How do the fleet-sizing and dispatch models that assume all-autonomous fleets perform in mixed markets?
Data that could help
Trip-level data released by city regulators (as in San Francisco and Chicago), robotaxi service areas and launch dates, and driver earnings surveys.
Next step
Compare ride-hailing trip prices, waiting times and driver hours in the parts of a city where robotaxis operate with the parts where they do not, before and after launch.