Sanctions evasion through third countries
Sanctions appear on 85 recent papers, with 23 in the last quarter against about 20 per quarter before, and 35 of them carry a Russia, enforcement or effectiveness keyword. Trade data show exports from Europe to Central Asia and the Caucasus surging after 2022. How much of the sanctioned trade simply took a detour, and what stops it?
What prompted this
Since October 2025, 85 papers carry a sanctions keyword (45 in economics journals, 21 in finance, 11 in management): "sanctions" on 18, "economic sanctions" on 15, "financial sanctions" on 11, "trade sanctions" on 9, "sanctions enforcement" on 6. Thirty-five of the 85 also carry an evasion, circumvention, third-country, re-export, Russia, enforcement or effectiveness keyword.
Questions
- How much of the fall in direct exports of sanctioned goods to Russia reappears as exports to its neighbours, product by product?
- Which firms do the rerouting: new shell exporters, or existing distributors?
- Did secondary sanctions on banks in third countries in 2024 cut the detours, and at what cost to legitimate trade?
Data that could help
Monthly bilateral trade data by product (UN Comtrade, Eurostat), customs records with exporter identities where available, and the dates of sanctions packages.
Next step
Compare the growth of EU exports of dual-use goods to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and the UAE with Russia's imports of the same goods since 2022.