Ageing populations and asset prices
Overlapping-generations models are a rising tool in the economics journals, and population aging is a large topic, but few papers connect aging to asset prices. Of 239 recent papers with an aging or demographic keyword, 17 carry a keyword about stocks, interest rates or house prices. As Japan, Korea, China and Europe age, will returns and interest rates fall?
What prompted this
In economics, "overlapping generations model" had 14 papers in July–September 2026 against about 9 expected (see the economics dashboard). Since October 2025, "population aging" appears on 114 papers (61 in economics journals, 35 in finance). Of the 239 papers with a population-aging or demographic keyword, only 17 also carry a keyword about stocks, asset pricing, interest rates, the equity premium or house prices.
Questions
- Do countries whose working-age share falls faster see lower real interest rates and equity valuations, at the same growth rate?
- Do retirees sell their assets as life-cycle models predict, or hold on to them, as many Japanese households do?
- How much do pension reforms that raise saving or the retirement age offset the effect?
Data that could help
Population projections by age (UN), real interest rates and equity valuations by country, and household portfolio surveys such as the Survey of Consumer Finances, SHARE or the China Household Finance Survey.
Next step
Regress long-run real interest rates and price-to-earnings ratios on the ratio of middle-aged to old people across OECD countries for 1970–2025.