Sin taxes on sugar, alcohol and tobacco
Alcohol consumption, tobacco control and excise taxes appear on 46 recent papers in the economics journals, with 17 in the last quarter against about 9 per quarter before. Sugar taxes have spread to more than 100 jurisdictions and alcohol taxes are being rewritten. Do the taxes change health, and who bears them?
What prompted this
Since October 2025, 46 papers carry a sugar-tax, alcohol, tobacco or excise-tax keyword (39 in economics journals): "alcohol consumption" on 16, "tobacco control" on 7, "excise tax" on 4, "sugar-sweetened beverage tax" on 2. The quarter to September 2026 had 17 such papers against about 9 per quarter earlier.
Questions
- Do sugar taxes change consumption enough to show up in weight and dental health, or do firms reformulate and consumers switch within the taxed category?
- Do minimum unit prices for alcohol, as in Scotland, reduce harm more than proportional taxes, and do they hit low-income drinkers hardest?
- Do large tobacco tax increases now mostly shift smokers to vaping, and what does that mean for the tax base?
Data that could help
Scanner purchase data, health outcome records, product reformulation data and the dates and sizes of tax changes by jurisdiction.
Next step
Compare sugar content and sales of soft drinks in jurisdictions with tiered sugar taxes and with flat volume taxes, before and after each tax.