Sovereign defaults with China as the main creditor
Sovereign default and sovereign debt crises appear on 42 recent papers in the economics and finance journals, but only one of them carries a creditor, China or Common Framework keyword. Recent restructurings in Zambia, Ghana and Sri Lanka involved China as a major lender. Do defaults take longer and resolve differently when the creditors are new?
What prompted this
Since October 2025, 42 papers carry a sovereign-default, sovereign-debt-crisis, debt-restructuring or debt-relief keyword (21 in economics journals, 20 in finance). Only one of them also carries a China, Common Framework, official-creditor, bilateral or creditor keyword. "Sovereign default" appears on 14 papers and "sovereign debt crisis" on 11.
Questions
- Have restructurings since 2020 taken longer, and given smaller haircuts, than earlier ones, and does the share of Chinese lending explain the difference?
- Do collateralized and confidential loans change how private bondholders are treated?
- Did the G20 Common Framework shorten the process, or add a step?
Data that could help
Restructuring timelines and terms (the IMF and academic restructuring databases), creditor composition from AidData's Chinese lending data, and bond prices around key events.
Next step
Compile the timeline of each restructuring since 2020 with its creditor composition and compare durations with restructurings of the 2000s.